OUTBREAK STATS— MV HONDIUS CLUSTER + GLOBAL· click any tile for details
Updated May 5, 12:00 PM UTC0
0
0
0%
0
0
0
CONTEXT229 cases / 59 deaths across the Americas in 2025 (CFR 25.7%) · Argentina: ~20 deaths late 2025 · Germany: 55 cases H1 2025 (2× prior year)
DAYS SINCE— live counters from outbreak timeline
First illness onset
41days
2026-04-06
Last new onset
19days
2026-04-28
First death
16days
2026-05-01
WHO notified
15days
2026-05-02
Cape Verde refusal
14days
2026-05-03
DON599 published
13days
2026-05-04
ACTIVE SIGNALS · LAST 14D
0signals
across0countries
0 CONFIRMED0 PROBABLE0 WATCHLIST
AI OUTBREAK BRIEFING
—Next refresh: 5m 00s
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS— Andes virus literature + live outbreak counters
SPREAD DYNAMICS — ANDES VIRUS— published epi parameters + live outbreak counters
FROM PUBLISHED LITERATURE
R₀ (H2H cluster)
1.1 – 1.4
Andes virus during the 2018–19 Epuyén outbreak (34 cases, documented H2H)
Alonso et al. 2020 Onset → death
5 – 15 d
Rapid HPS progression; cardiogenic shock typically days 4–10
WHO + CDC clinical reviews FROM CURRENT OUTBREAK
Onset window
22 d
April 6 → April 28 — consistent with single-source rodent exposure plus possible H2H
WHO DON599 Quiet period
20 d
Days since last known illness onset (Apr 28). One serial interval ≈ 21–32d.
ComputedWhy this matters: the “quiet period” is one of the strongest signals of whether the cluster is contained. If no new onsets are detected after one serial interval (~32 days), the H2H chain is likely broken.
STRAIN PHYLOGENY— Hantaviridae evolutionary relationships · 10 strains · GenBank-referenced
STRAIN PHYLOGENY· Hantaviridae family · hover nodes for detail
Old World · HFRS
New World · HPS
Current outbreak
Current outbreak: Andes virus (ANDV) — the only hantavirus with documented human-to-human transmission. Isolated 1995 from O. longicaudatus in Patagonia. MV Hondius cluster (May 2026) is consistent with ANDV phylogeny.
GENOMIC PROFILE — ANDES VIRUS— segmented genome, reservoir, ICTV classification
GENOME SEGMENTS — TOTAL ~12.1 kb
L6,562 bp
RdRp polymerase
RNA-dependent RNA polymerase — copies viral genome
M3,672 bp
Glycoproteins Gn / Gc
Surface envelope proteins — host cell entry, primary antibody target
S1,871 bp
Nucleocapsid protein N
Encapsidates viral RNA; most abundant viral protein in infected cells
TAXONOMY & REFERENCES
Family
Hantaviridae
Genus
Orthohantavirus
Type species
Hantaan orthohantavirus
Genome
Tri-segmented (-) ssRNA
Virion
Spherical, enveloped
Total genome
~12.1 kb
Reservoir host
Oligoryzomys longicaudatus
ICTV classification
Bunyavirales · Hantaviridae · Andes orthohantavirus
GenBank reference
NC_003466 / NC_003467 / NC_003468
RECENT SIGNALS— Last 14 days · auto-classified by source authority
RECENT SIGNALS— surveillance-grade tier · auto-classified by source
Reading the wire…
Tiers reflect source authority, not AI confidence. Confirmed = WHO/CDC/PAHO/RKI/etc. or PCR-verified. Probable = major outlet. Watchlist = single source / unverified.
ROUTE RISK ASSESSOR— Plan a trip · check hantavirus risk per country
ROUTE RISK ASSESSOR— country-level hantavirus reference + AI-summarized precautions
ORIGIN
DESTINATION
ACTIVITY
Reference covers ~25 countries with documented hantavirus circulation. Not a substitute for medical advice — consult a travel-medicine clinician for trips to endemic regions.
OUTBREAK INTELLIGENCE— Live feeds · epidemiology · ship tracking
NEWS FEED9 STORIES
OUTBREAK TIMELINEMV HONDIUS · APR – MAY 2026
May 5
POLICYSpain Offers to Accept Ship
Spain announces it will welcome the MV Hondius to the Canary Islands for full medical assessment and evacuation of ill passengers. Ship changes course.
May 4
LABWHO Lab Confirmation
PCR testing confirms hantavirus in two patients: a British patient in a Johannesburg hospital and a Dutch national. Five further cases remain suspected.
May 4
RESPONSEWHO Issues Disease Outbreak Notice (DON599)
WHO publishes its official Disease Outbreak Notice. Risk to global public assessed as LOW. Andes virus (Orthohantavirus andesense) identified as the probable strain.
Source: WHO DON599
May 3
POLICYCape Verde Refuses Docking
Cape Verde authorities deny the MV Hondius permission to dock due to infection control concerns, leaving 149 people stranded at sea.
May 2
RESPONSEWHO Notified
The hantavirus cluster is formally reported to the World Health Organization. Emergency protocols activated.
May 1
DEATHThree Fatalities Occur
Three passengers die from severe respiratory illness including a Dutch couple and a German national. Ship heads toward Cape Verde.
Apr 28
CASELast Known Illness Onset
WHO confirms illness onsets occurred between April 6–28. Multiple passengers develop fever and rapid progression to pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome.
Apr 6
CASEFirst Illness Onset
The first passenger begins showing symptoms: fever, gastrointestinal distress. Onset date later confirmed by WHO as April 6.
Apr 6
TRAVELShip Visits Remote Islands
Itinerary includes mainland Antarctica, South Georgia, Nightingale Island, Tristan da Cunha, Saint Helena, and Ascension Island — all potential rodent exposure sites.
Apr 1
TRAVELMV Hondius Departs Ushuaia, Argentina
The expedition cruise ship sets sail from Ushuaia with 88 passengers and 59 crew representing 23 nationalities, bound for remote South Atlantic islands.
RESPONSE TIMING— Detection → notification → action intervals vs historical median
PUBLIC HEALTH RESPONSE TIMING— actual intervals vs. historical median
Onset → death25d SLOWvs median 10d
First illness onset (2026-04-06)First fatality reported (2026-05-01)
median 10d
Median onset-to-death for HPS is ~5–15 days; this interval (25 d) covers multiple cases including index. — CDC HPS clinical course ↗
Onset → lab confirm28d SLOWvs median 14d
First illness onset (2026-04-06)First PCR confirmation (2026-05-04)
median 14d
From symptom onset to laboratory PCR confirmation. International outbreak median ~14 d. — WHO IHR notification standards ↗
Cluster recognized → WHO notified1d FASTvs median 3d
Cluster fatalities recognized (2026-05-01)WHO formally notified (2026-05-02)
median 3d
IHR (International Health Regulations) requires notification within 24 hours of risk assessment. — WHO IHR (24h notification) ↗
WHO notified → DON published2d FASTvs median 4d
WHO notified (2026-05-02)DON599 published (2026-05-04)
median 4d
WHO Disease Outbreak Notice publication latency, average ~3–5 days. — WHO Disease Outbreak News ↗
First case → first international action27d SLOWvs median 21d
First illness onset (2026-04-06)Cape Verde refusal (2026-05-03)
median 21d
Total elapsed time from index case to first cross-border response decision. — WHO DON599 ↗
PANDEMIC THREAT MATRIX— Hantavirus vs. 6 priority pathogens — CFR, R₀, vaccines, antivirals
ECOLOGICAL CONTEXT— Climate, land use, and reservoir drivers
ECOLOGICAL CONTEXT — DRIVERS OF HPS— climate, land use, reservoir dynamics
HPS SEASONALITY — AMERICAS (BY MONTH)Current: May
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
S-summerS-fallS-winterS-spring
ECOLOGICAL DRIVERS
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Strong El Niño years drive precipitation surges in southwestern S. America, increasing seed/fruit availability for rodents and amplifying reservoir populations 6–18 months later.
Evidence: 1993 Four Corners HPS outbreak followed an ENSO-driven precipitation anomaly; subsequent S. American studies replicate the pattern.
Hjelle & Glass 2000 Land-use change
Forest fragmentation and edge habitat increase rodent–human contact rates, particularly along agricultural frontiers in Patagonia.
Evidence: Higher seroprevalence in O. longicaudatus near disturbed habitats vs. intact forest.
Polop et al. 2018 Bamboo masting events
Synchronous bamboo (Chusquea spp.) seed production every 10–20 years triggers rodent population irruptions of 10–100×, and historically precedes HPS outbreaks in Patagonia.
Evidence: 1996 Bariloche cluster followed Chusquea masting; pattern recurs in Argentine Andes.
Murúa et al. 2003 Climate warming (long-term)
Higher mean temperatures and precipitation variability are projected to expand reservoir range northward and lengthen the active season.
Evidence: Modeled habitat-suitability projections under RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios.
Andreo et al. 2022 Note on the MV Hondius cluster: the ship's itinerary (Apr 1–28, S. summer/fall) overlaps the historical seasonal peak. Whether the index exposure was on-board (rodents in cargo/hold) or on-shore (Antarctic islands, Tristan da Cunha) is still under investigation per WHO DON599.
HISTORICAL OUTBREAKS— Global hantavirus events since 1951
SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE— PubMed-indexed research, auto-categorized · expand any paper to distil with AI
RESEARCH PAPERS0 PAPERS
VOYAGE DETAIL— MV Hondius route reconstruction